On June 17, local time, US President Trump took a tough stance on social media, calling on Iran to "surrender unconditionally." Trump said, "The United States knows exactly where Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei is. The United States will not assassinate him at present, but the United States will never tolerate missile attacks on civilians or US troops. Our patience is running out." This remark undoubtedly dropped a heavy bomb in the already tense situation in the Middle East.

In the afternoon of the same day, Trump convened the national security team at the White House to hold an emergency discussion on the ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran. Several US media revealed that Trump is weighing a series of response options, even including joining Israel's air strikes on Iran. Previously, Trump told the media on the presidential plane "Air Force One" that "I am not in much mood to negotiate with Iran," and emphasized that his goal against Iran is to truly end the conflict, not a simple ceasefire.

CNN quoted two people familiar with the matter on the 17th as saying that Trump's intention to use US military assets to launch air strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities has become stronger. However, the Trump administration also sent another signal that if Iran makes major concessions, the United States still does not rule out the possibility of resolving the conflict through diplomatic means.

Before Trump's tough statement, Iran also made new moves. Abdul-Rahim Mousavi, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, issued a video statement on the 17th, saying that Iran's previous actions against Israel were only deterrent warnings, and real punitive actions against Israel are coming. The Israeli army has not responded to this so far.

Israeli Ambassador to the United States Yesil Lett once stated that Israel has asked the United States to adopt a purely "defensive posture" in the conflict with Iran. But now with Trump's tough voice and discussions within the White House on how to intervene, the role of the United States in this conflict has become more confusing. At present, Trump is weighing whether the United States should further intervene in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, and this decision will greatly affect the direction of the situation in the Middle East. Global financial markets are also holding their breath, worrying that further escalation of geopolitical risks will have an impact on economic and financial stability.

What should investors pay attention to next?

• Crude oil and gold prices: As geopolitical risks spread, safe-haven demand is likely to push up crude oil and gold prices.

• Interaction between emerging markets and the strength of the US dollar: If safe-haven funds flow into the US dollar (USD), emerging market currencies and stocks will be hit hard.

• Rising volatility of US stocks: If Trump decides to intensify military action, US stocks will experience short-term violent fluctuations.

• Demand for financial safe-haven products surges: Gold ETFs and bond market ETFs will attract more funds.