On June 23, the US military raided three Iranian nuclear facilities, triggering an escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. The Australian dollar fell by about 0.84% to around 0.6395 against the US dollar, hitting a three-week low. Analysts pointed out that investors once again turned to risk aversion, pushing up the US dollar index and directly impacting high-risk currencies such as the Australian dollar.

FXStreet foreign exchange analysis pointed out that the Australian dollar continued to fall after breaking the 0.6450 support, and it is still not optimistic in the short term. From a technical perspective, the first support level is close to 0.6420 (200-day moving average). If it falls below, the next focus will be the medium-term low area of 0.6307 to 0.6157.

📌 How should investors view the market outlook?

• Short-term risk management first: If the situation in the Middle East is likely to escalate further, it is recommended to reduce AUD/USD long orders at highs, and DQ can use USD-related hedging tools.

• Focus on geopolitical developments: If air strikes are stopped or conflicts cool down, the decline in risk aversion will give the Australian dollar a short-term repair opportunity, and the rebound space is expected to return to 0.645-0.650.

• Australia's own economic data performance: The June composite PMI and May inflation data will be released later this week. If they perform strongly, it may help the Australian dollar regain confidence.

• RBA policy trends and market risk appetite: If the tone of the Reserve Bank of Australia turns hawkish, it will stabilize the medium-term trend of the AUD; on the contrary, if volatility continues, it is expected to remain in the 0.63-0.65 range.